By Svein Oesttveit, Director a.i. of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, and Manos Antoninis, Director of the Global Education Monitoring Report
The latest update of the UIS and GEM Report model shows that, in 2024, an estimated 273 million children, adolescents and youth were out of school. That figure breaks down into 79 million children of primary school age, 64 million adolescents of lower secondary school age, and 130 million youth of upper secondary school age. At the same time, according to the latest UIS data release shown in the 2026 GEM Report released yesterday, 1,433 million were attending primary or secondary school globally. The two numbers together tell a story that is both about progress and about its limits.
The headline figure has been rising since 2017, but it is easy to misread what that means. The out-of-school rate, the share of school-age children, adolescents and youth who are not in school, has actually remained broadly stable at around 17% since 2015 – or one in six of the school-age population. The world hasn’t so much been going backwards, as not managing to go forwards, as populations have continued to grow.
Figure 1: Progress in out-of-school rates has slowed since 2015
Where are numbers rising the fastest? And why?
Low-income countries deserve the most attention. Almost all of the increase since 2015 (totaling 9 million children and youth) is concentrated in low-income countries, where the out-of-school population has grown by 29% since 2015, and by 41% since 2009. In the rest of the world, it has remained broadly flat.
Out-of-school rates are far higher in low-income countries (36%) than in lower-middle-income countries (20%), in upper-middle-income countries (8%), and in high-income countries (3%).
Two regions represent three quarters of the challenge. Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia together account for roughly three quarters of the global out-of-school population. Among primary school age children and lower secondary school age adolescents not in school, sub-Saharan Africa’s share has grown particularly notably over the past two decades, now accounting for half the global out-of-school population. The share of Central and Southern Asia has been declining in these two age groups but has remained relatively stable among youth of upper-secondary school age.
In sub-Saharan Africa, demographic growth is rapid and the pace of educational expansion has not kept up: the school-age population has grown by over 80% at all levels since 2000.
Figure 2: Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia account for 75% of the total out-of-school population
There are more boys out of school than girls
The new data shows that there continue to be more boys out of school than girls. In 2024, 140 million boys (51%) were out of school compared to 133 million girls (49%). This reversal began in 2007. This is not the same as saying that there are no longer significant challenges for girls. Gender gaps remain acute in specific country and regional contexts, but may be felt more for boys in some countries and for girls in others.
Country trajectories show variation within income groups
Country-level data add texture to the regional picture. Among low-income countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia and Niger were the four furthest behind in 2000, with at least 60% of primary school age children out of school. They made rapid progress by halving their out-of-school rates by 2015 but have all seen a reversal since.
Among lower-middle-income countries, Bhutan, Cambodia and Morocco, three of the countries furthest behind in term of out-of-school rates of adolescents of lower secondary school age in 2000, all made rapid gains by 2015. Cambodia reduced its out-of-school rate by 85%. Morocco continued making progress through to 2024.
Nigeria halved its adolescent out-of-school rate between 2000 and 2023, from 33% to 17%. Pakistan similarly halved its rate by 2015, reaching 9%, but by 2023 it had risen back to 20%, showing no net long-term progress.
Among upper-middle and high-income countries, Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Portugal and Türkiye reduced their out-of-school rate of youth of upper secondary school age by at least 88% between 2000 and 2024. Indonesia and Mexico, by contrast, have stagnated since 2015.
The data gap
Any discussion of out-of-school estimates needs to acknowledge how much we do not know. In low-income countries, data coverage is seriously limited: 36% of low-income countries and 28% of lower-middle-income countries had observations on out-of-school rates at three points in time (2000–02, 2014–16 and 2022–24), for primary school age children and lower secondary school age adolescents, respectively. The situation is a little better among upper-middle and high-income countries where 50% have data on upper secondary school age youth.
The countries with the worst data availability are disproportionately those with the most children out of school. Many are also affected by conflict, and the UIS-GEM Report model that produces these estimates, which combines administrative data with household surveys and censuses, almost certainly undercounts the actual out-of-school populations in these settings. The 2026 GEM Report estimates that in the 10 most-affected countries in 2024, there were another 13 million out of school.
What this tells us
Progress in rapidly reducing out-of-school populations is achievable. Stories of countries featured in the 2026 GEM Report show the different ways that countries have achieved change. As the momentum since 2015 has dissipated globally, looking at these stories of success is even more important to find ways of increasing progress up to 2030 and beyond, and stopping the numbers of those out-of-school from climbing yet another year.
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